Natural Gas made a high on June 9^th 2016. The subsequent 5 trading days have had trading ranges inside of the big move that was made on June 9^th. On a seasonal basis over the last 15 years we have found that the NG October contract closed at a lower price on close near July 10^th than the opening price near June 17^th for all 15 years. The contract has volatility based resistance in the range of 2.753 to 2.819. Additionally, we have strong resistance at 2.921 (one full cycle up from the 2.277 low).

One February 29^th of the year this contract made a significant low. On January 20^th Crude Oil made its low so it would appear that Natural Gas is lagging behind Crude Oil about 5 weeks. In the same vain Crude Oil made a significant high on June 9^th. About 3 weeks past the Crude Oil high we have a potential cycle turn date for Natural Gas. When using the signature low from February 29^th, our cycle analysis produced turn dates on April 24^th, May 18^th, and now June 28^th then August 15^th. You can see on the chart how the April and May dates panned out.

A short position on this contract between now and June 28^th looks to be favorable with a minimum target price objective of 2.515. Another demarcation point to keep in mind is 2.610. If price closes below that level we believe that there is a strong probability the price will touch 2.419. A move up into the June 28^th timeline would be an opportunity to fade this market especially if the price is at a resistance level at that time. We have include a chart of Crude Oil for reference.